WASHINGTON, DC (WASHINGTON POST) — Even in the most anti-incumbent primary season of the past few decades, less than 5 percent of members of Congress lost their primaries.
Such is the case under a political system that weighs things heavily in favor of incumbents
But relatively speaking, this looks like one of the most anti-incumbent years in decades. There are several factors in the coming election that will lead to an increase in the number of members sent home early — and it’s quite possible we could see more incumbents lose than at any point in the last 40 years.
If this year does exceed 1992’s carnage, it starts with the 10 races listed below: Our top 10 incumbents who could lose their primaries.
(For the purposes of this exercise, we’re excluding the incumbent-versus-incumbent matchups.)
To the line!
10. Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.): If there’s one guy who’s ripe for a conservative primary challenge, it’s Jones. Jones frequently votes against his party on the major issues of the day, the most recent being Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget. In fact, it’s a wonder he’s escaped serious opposition in recent years. That could change this year, with former New Bern Police Chief Frank Palombo running against him and the Campaign for Primary Accountability targeting him. We’ll see if Jones is actually threatened, but he’s a ripe target.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE OTHER NINE: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-next-jean-schmidt-the-top-10-house-incumbents-who-could-lose-their-primaries/2012/03/30/gIQA5dOalS_blog.html