RALEIGH, NC (NEWS RELEASE) -– A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden is 4 percentage points ahead of the Republican slate — presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 49 percent chose Obama/Biden and 45 percent chose Romney/Ryan. (This is the first 2012 Civitas Poll to include the vice presidential candidates.)
In addition, and also for the first time, the Civitas Poll asked voters who they’d prefer if Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and vice-presidential candidate James P. Gray were included. Forty-seven percent of voters would elect Obama and Biden; 43 percent went for Romney and Ryan; and 4 percent favored Johnson and Gray.
Text of questions:
If the election for President and Vice-President were being held today, for whom would you vote: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats?*
45% Total Romney/ Ryan
49% Total Obama/ Biden
40% Definitely Romney/ Ryan
4% Probably Romney/ Ryan
1% Lean Romney/ Ryan
2% Lean Obama/ Biden
3% Probably Obama/ Biden
44% Definitely Obama/ Biden
*previous question wording did not include Vice-President candidates
Now suppose the Libertarian candidates were running. For whom would you vote between the following: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats; or Gary Johnson and James P. Gray, Libertarians?
43% Total Romney/ Ryan
47% Total Obama/ Biden
4% Total Johnson/ Gray
36% Definitely Romney
6% Probably Romney
1% Lean Romney 2% Definitely Johnson
1% Probably Johnson
1% Lean Johnson
43% Definitely Obama
3% Probably Obama
1% Lean Obama 4% Hard undecided
Click here for crosstabs.
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted September 18-19, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. Sample methodology is List Based Sampling. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.