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RALEIGH, NC (NEWS RELEASE) -– A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden is 4 percentage points ahead of the Republican slate — presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 49 percent chose Obama/Biden and 45 percent chose Romney/Ryan. (This is the first 2012 Civitas Poll to include the vice presidential candidates.)

In addition, and also for the first time, the Civitas Poll asked voters who they’d prefer if Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and vice-presidential candidate James P. Gray were included. Forty-seven percent of voters would elect Obama and Biden; 43 percent went for Romney and Ryan; and 4 percent favored Johnson and Gray.

Text of questions:

If the election for President and Vice-President were being held today, for whom would you vote: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats?*

45% Total Romney/ Ryan
49% Total Obama/ Biden

40% Definitely Romney/ Ryan
4% Probably Romney/ Ryan
1% Lean Romney/ Ryan
5% Undecided
2% Lean Obama/ Biden
3% Probably Obama/ Biden
44% Definitely Obama/ Biden
2% Refused

*previous question wording did not include Vice-President candidates

Now suppose the Libertarian candidates were running. For whom would you vote between the following: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats; or Gary Johnson and James P. Gray, Libertarians?
43% Total Romney/ Ryan
47% Total Obama/ Biden
4% Total Johnson/ Gray
36% Definitely Romney
6% Probably Romney
1% Lean Romney 2% Definitely Johnson
1% Probably Johnson
1% Lean Johnson
43% Definitely Obama
3% Probably Obama
1% Lean Obama 4% Hard undecided
– Other
2% Refused

Click here for crosstabs.

About the Poll:

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted September 18-19, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. Sample methodology is List Based Sampling. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

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11 Comments on "CIVITAS POLL: Obama, Biden lead Romney, Ryan in NC"

Grand Ole Party
2015 years 10 months ago

Really John? Only a ignorant fool would vote for the same clown that has been running the circus for the last four years. I understand some people are not sure what Romney would bring to the table, but on the other hand we know damn well what Obammy brings to the table, NOTHING but misery. Hey did you want to do some lunch later on this week at Chick-Fil-A? Did you feel a little bit ignorant the other day when you thought they changed there stance and found out later it was just a rumor? You leftie libs are always lacking any real facts. No issues though, us sheep dogs got it under control, just get to grazing and enjoy the view.

2015 years 10 months ago

Grand Ole Party, back in the day the Republican Party represented two principal notions, a strong defense and fiscal restraint. It is indeed unfortunate that the party has been usurped by drooling idiots as yourself.

Guest 4545
2015 years 10 months ago

See what they have to say in November and explain why their sample group was so wrong.

2015 years 10 months ago

Keep dreaming… Romney has sunk his ship. The cats out of the bag… he is an elitist, who looks down at the working class. Why? because we are slaves to him… Just look at his explanation as to why his 14% tax rate is fair… So he can be the hirer and 47% of the country can be his worker bee’s… No thank you… The gig is up, and the majority of NC knows it…

2015 years 10 months ago

Obama will continue to pull ahead as Americans begin to see what Romney is all about and he continues to make so many idiotic mistakes, along with his little henchman, Ryan.

Guesty 1
2015 years 10 months ago

I fear it will only get worse for Romney and the GOP. Why the GOP went with Romney I’ll never understand? They stood a good chance of beating Obama with the right candidate but instead went with a Mormon outsourcer with poor speaking ability and the personality of a lamp post. uugh….!

Monkey Junction
2015 years 10 months ago

If Romney cannot win NC, the there is no chance for him.

2015 years 10 months ago

John, I don’t think it safe to assume that Gov. Romney’s ship is sunk yet. There’s a big cat still in the bag which is that fairness is not a concern when we realistically look at the tax code, the only duty of any citizen is that he or she pay their legal obligation according to the tax law.

We should not ignore the fact that while the President may support policies and objectives, tax law originates in the Congress.

President Reagan has been styled “The Great Communicator”, a title he richly deserves. For better or worse, this President was the most effective change agent in office during my lifetime. Reagan’s first two major tax acts in 1981 and 1982 were passed by a Republican Congress. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 was passed by the 99th Congress consisting of a Republican Senate (53R, 47D) AND a Democratic House (253D, 182R). To President Reagan’s credit, he succeeded in making his policies happen by persuasiveness and compromise.

Moving a little ahead in history and thinking about NAFTA and its effects particularly the loss of American jobs, we must recall that this was signed into law under President Clinton with the blessings of Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. No post FDR Democrat had a greater opportunity than Pres. Clinton to step up and reverse bad policy in favor of the American worker. Unfortunately he didn’t.

More currently, President Obama enjoyed a friendly Congress during the term of the 111th (2009-2011). What did this Congress really accomplish aside from health care reform which still remains contentious? Did Pres. Obama succeed in building consensus and working for the middle class??

2015 years 10 months ago

Friend, it may be you that’s crazy. Obama/Biden saved this country from total failure. Paid for two unfunded wars and restored Americas stature with the world community. Obama/Biden has offered plan after plan to put Americans back to work, using the exact small businesses you complain about and the Republicans have blocked all efforts. You like Mr. Romney offer no plan what so ever to restore American wealth or health to anyone except our nations most wealthy. Maybe you might ask yourself how you and your family will live without Medicare, without Social Security, without job growth. Romney talks about jobs, but never about how this will happen. His approach is elect me and the light will just come on. Well my friend I’m waiting for just one small business segment to come forward and say we will start hiring if you elect him. You may be one of those that lives just for the moment and just for yourself, but the numbers indicate that today North Carolina doesn’t live that way. So as crazy as we might be we are way ahead of you and we want much more from our President than just someone who as the Republicans say ,just needs to be able to sign his name. It’s not to late for you and others to change from narrow minded to Open Minded and Vote Obama/Biden. Oh an while your at it, Vote For Baseball!!

2015 years 10 months ago

You people are crazy if you think Obama/Biden is good for this country. Look at what the idiots have done to small businesses. That’s what’s wrong with this country today, the freaking president & morons like you all who support him and his decisions. What about the gas prices, what about the unemployment rate? Quit talking about Romney’s religion and question who/what Obama is.

2015 years 10 months ago

Guest 2012, are you serious… The country is in the shape it is in because George W. Bush was an idiot. You want to talk about a President that was wrong for this country look no further. President Obama has been working hard to turn this country around, and we are seeing growth. This never was going to be a overnight fix… no one on the Rep. side could fix this mess in four years either… “What about gas prices”… really are you this ignorant… it’s not like the President wakes up every morning presses a button and raises the price of gas while laughing at us… If you want to complain about gas prices take it up with the state of NC which has a gas tax over 50 cents a gallon (third highest in the US). And by your logic we should cast a blind eye to who/what Romney is and focus all that energy on Obama… right… must be nice being so ignorant.


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