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BUCKLEY'S BLOG: Sun is back; any flurry chances?

We've finally kicked our bad habit of clouds and showers, but as cupid brings us some sunshine our focus shifts toward cold weather concerns for the weekend. The big question as I mentioned earlier this week is can it produce anything frozen in the sky? It's one of those 1 in a million "Dumb and Dumber" chances. (see graphic)

Cold Fronts Cometh
First things first, cupid has brought us some sunshine and put an end to the cloudy/dreary weather that's been plaguing us. While there will be plenty of high clouds today, the sun will still shine bright and we'll find even more sunshine during the day on Friday. There are two cold fronts that I'm watching that signal a turn toward colder air. 

The first cold front will cross the area overnight Friday. This one will be dry, with hardly any clouds and no rain or snow chances. What it will do is lower temperatures from the 60's Friday afternoon to the 50's Saturday afternoon. That's step 1 of our cool down process. 

Step 2 comes Saturday night. A second, stronger cold front will be the leading edge to some really cold air that we haven't seen in a while. In fact, the last time our area was in the mid 20's was back on the 1st and 2nd of the month. What it has in cold air and strength, it lacks in moisture. 

All week long there's been a question amongst the computer models about IF there will be enough moisture to produce any rain or snow across North Carolina. Earlier in the week the models had been suggesting that was a good possibility -- lately they've been backing off that significantly, but there's still some reason not to rule out a flurry in the sky. 

Here's what Futurecast has to say about things.

Saturday @ 5pm

Sunday at 1am

While Futurecast suggests it's a pipe dream to see anything but a light rain shower Saturday - Saturday night, some other computer models continue to suggest otherwise. The SREF ensembles, which you can think of as some closer range probability based models demonstrate the odds of this situation quite well. Here are two graphics that tell a big story. 

SREF Precip Chances

Looking at the precip chances you can see that 1) There's very little chance of ANY precip in Wilmington Saturday / Saturday night. 2) During the daylight hours anything that falls would likely be as drizzle. 3) IF there's enough moisture left overnight, there is a small chance for a few flurries across SE NC. Important to remember this is just a computer generated forecast.

SREF Snow Accumulation

This graphic shows potential for any snow to stick overnight Saturday, with about half a dozen different computer models. The top model can be dismissed as an outlier; there is no way we see an inch of snow from this little system. Several models suggest a modest flurry spray resulting in less than ONE TENTH of an inch of snow. This is really nothing -- but it means that if that system is able to spit some flurries out of the sky, they'll stick for a few hours with the lightest of coatings possibe. 

My Overall Thoughts

I'm not buying the snow chances in general. It seems that it will be just too dry to get any moisture into the area Saturday night. Having said that I'm including a 10% precip chance in my Saturday/Saturday night forecast to account for any daylight drizzle or overnight flurry. 

  • What: Light snow flurries
  • Timing: Overnight Saturday
  • Chance of happening: About 10%
  • Accumulation: Little to none
  • Impacts: No impacts to roads or travel expected.

In the end, we MAY be able to squeeze out a flurry that you could stick out your tongue and catch a snowflake overnight Sat. If you're a snow lover, do a little snow dance and see if that works. We'll see. 

By: Tim Buckley

UH? TIM? a NOWCAST Event..????

Have you seen the Model Runs overnight? We MAY, Be in for a very RARE & Pleasent Surprise Sat/Early Sun Timeframe... Seems Hurricane Recones been doing Dropsond Sampling in the GOM & off Our Coastal area(s).Yesterday AND this morning... Is Something afoot? Cyclone Genesis w/ a Negative Tilt a couple hours Earlier in the Forcast=BAM! 1989 Redux? Or at least a good few Mashed tater inches? Seems BL issues, OR "WARM NOSE", will NOT be a factor here, abit at first with plenty of evaporational cooling & A strong frontogenesis in the snow growth zone? Question? Do Our soundings support all SN? Or rain/SN mix?
Again Love your Blog! From One another Weather WEENIE to another,
Peace David