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"I spy an Eye!" - An update on Danielle and Earl (and Fiona?)
Submitted by Tim Buckley on Thu, 08/26/2010 - 9:54am.
The parade of storms just continues along it's path in the open Atlantic. Danielle, Earl, and what may eventually become Fiona are marching down the same avenue. We'll see what they have in store for us.
Checking in on the storms this morning, Hurricane Danielle is still the star of the show. Dominating the satellite picture, the storm is now very large in size and has weathered some shear very well. One new feature appearing this morning - finally a good glimpse of an eye. Looking at the above satellite image from NOAA you can clearly see a well defined eye-wall, at least for now. Sometimes storms will develop an eye only to lose it later on. We'll keep an 'eye out' (bad pun, I know) on how well this feature holds on in the storm as it heads north.
Now we've been telling how much of a flip-flop game it's been in the model department with Danielle. We have a good agreement that the storm turns nearly due north. In fact, we're already seeing that turn begin to happen on satellite. However, once the storm passes Bermuda there are two schools of thought.
One, continues to take the storm farther out to sea away from land. This is largely the consensus with most of the models - as well as the forecast track. The other, has a turn to the left toward the coast, which makes for a tough forecast for the Northeast US. As you can see above, the trend has been for the 'left turn' group to back off a bit, and it seems like the right turn will win out. Good news for the East Coast!
Before checking in on Earl, one big reminder. It will be great beach weather this weekend - but the water with be treacherous! I repeat, the water will be treacherous! If you do go to the beach, please pay attention to the lifeguards and red flags that will likely be flying. High surf and dangerous rip currents will be found all weekend long. Stay safe.
Now, onto Earl. It appears that Earl will be the storm giving us heartburn for the better part of the next week as we track his progress westward.
Here's the morning's model plots on Earl. All of the projections have Earl on a nearly westerly track until he passes just to the north of the Leeward Islands. At this point the storm should be a category 1 or category 2 hurricane. Then - the trick becomes the turn north.
Just how far Earl turns north will be the key on whether or not he is a threat for landfall in the southeast or not. As of right now, you can see many of the models are hinting on a significant turn early next week. That is encouraging - but it is still way too early to sound the "all clear" on this system just yet. We'll keep tracking it closely.
Now you didn't think the fun would end there did you? Unfortunately it looks like e the storms just keep on coming. Our latest tropical wave is moving off the African coast and looks every bit as impressive as Danielle and Earl did before it. Most of the models aren't picking up on what would be Fiona just yet, but given the recent pattern - it would NOT be a shock to see a new Tropical Storm here in the coming days.
We'll be busy straight through September here. Keep checking back here on the blog as well as Hurricanes 101 for all the latest info.
Oh by the way, once this cold front swings through early Friday our weather will be nice for a LONG time - straight through next week.
That's all for now!
By: Tim Buckley