Presidential prediction UPDATE (already?): Hillary takes Dem nom

It's been just 12 days since I posted my last prediction on how the presidential race will turn out come Nov. 4. I figured I might need to post an update afterTuesday's primaries here in North Carolina and Indiana. But a lot has happened in those last 12 daysp; enough to make me rethink and reformulate my appraisal of what's going on. Most notably, the media monster that is Jeremiah Wright has awakened and squarely bitten Barack Obama in the butt. With Wright saying that Obama's denouncements of and distancing from his former pastor was merely the politically proper thing to do, voters have started to shy on the candidate. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has taken every opportunity to work out to working class white voters by labeling her opponent an elitist, somehow ignoring the irony of a multi-millionaire former First Lady who went to Wellesley and Yale Law calling someone an elitist.

Regardless, late last week Clinton had knocked Obama's lead in the polls in North Carolina, once as much as 20 percent in some polls, down to about eight percent. Nationally, Obama led a national poll of Democrats by 10 percent two weeks ago. Clinton now leads that poll by seven percent; her first lead in three months. One poll also gives Clinton a slight advantage in Indiana.

A Clinton loss in North Carolina could actually be the beginning of the end for Obama. If she can stay within seven to eight percentage points in the Tar Heel State, I think it will be a victory for her considering the large lead Obama had recently. Likewise, a win in mid-American Indiana would give Clinton clear momentum heading into the last few contests and with superdelegates. And that's exactly what I think will happen tomorrow. Increased Clinton momentum in the midst of all the Wright fallout could be devastating for Obama, even though he leads in delegates and popular vote.

I asked Obama last week what he thought about the possible disenfranchisement of Democratic primary voters if he maintained the popular and delegate leads yet lost on superdelegates. He gave me a canned line about whoever wins being able to garner the support of the people who voted for the loser. I pressed him for a better answer. "The person, I think, who ends up coming into the convention with the best claim is gonna be the person who's won the most contests and done best among voters," Obama told me. "I think that's a pretty clear principle, and I think, ultimately, the party will abide by it."

Obviously he's referring to himself, as he's already won more than half of the primaries and caucuses and, again, leads the popular vote. But it sounds to me like Obama's willing to ignore DNC chair Howard Dean's request that one of the candidates concede at the end of the primaries on June 3 in order to unite the party before the convention in August. Does than mean a floor fight at the convention? Does that mean an ugly battle for superdelegates all summer long? If so, you can count on the Clintons to cash in all their chips (heck, the campaign's already $9 million in the hole as it is), call in all their favors and bank on the political capital they started building long before Obama ever found himself on the national stage. And if that happens, Hillary Clinton takes the nomination by a small albeit significant margin. As for what happens in November? There's no use predicting that any more until we see what happens with the Democratic nomination.