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Sunshine for now -- but this delightful pattern can't (and won't) last forever

The long stretch of warm sunny days across the region will last all the way through the weekend -- but perhaps not beyond. It looks as if a major pattern change is poised to take shape across the US, meaning more battles between warm and cold air - creating many more storm systems heading our way. But it's not like we're in a position to complain!

Check out the weather we've enjoyed here after our Noah's Ark rainfall event of late-September.

  • 16 out of 20 days in October have been either mostly sunny or clear
  • We've only seen measurable rain 2 days in the month (total of 0.02")
  • 10 days at or above 80°, only one day with a high below 70°

 

This string of weather can be thanked in large part to huge areas of high pressure parking themselves right in our backyard, deflecting any weather systems away from our region. In fact, the systems that actually have passed through our area have been fairly moisture starved and anchored by an area of low pressure far to the north. Since the main energy driving the system is so far away, there's not much juice to drive the system in our backyard and it gets overcome by the dry air that's been in place.

However, as eluded to in the title - this trend can't last too long. Looking ahead in the weather pattern we'll have high pressure settling in for the weekend, but the pattern change lies behind that.

Looking at the this printout of the GFS computer model for Saturday the weather is already setting up for a more active pattern. The storm system in the northern plains will act as a mechanism to drag cooler air farther south from Canada heading into next week. Also, looking farther west, you can see more energy and storms lining up to take its place.

Fast forward to Monday, and the storm system in the Midwest has already made its way east and is sending showers and storms along a front from the Great Lakes to the Southeast - giving us our first shot at significant rain since September. But more storms are waiting behind it and this initial one looks to be the one to pave their way for a path to the South.

Going well into next week, this map shows a forecast for Thursday afternoon. Cold Canadian air has already plunged far to the south into the central plains and even into northern Texas. This cold air will create a large contrast, a "battleground", with the warmer tropical air to the south. We should see this translate into strong areas of low pressure sending some strong thunderstorms across the Southeast throughout the workweek and into next weekend.

While it's too early to hammer out any details at this point - the trend is clear. We're not going to see a large stretch of sunny clear weather like we have recently for quite a while. Instead, look for an unsettled pattern with perhaps some stormy days and nights ahead - not to mention large temperature swings.

As always, stay tuned for further details on the forecast and enjoy the beautiful sunshine and fall weather while it lasts!

- TB

By: Tim Buckley