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Submitted by Tim Buckley on Mon, 08/02/2010 - 2:44pm.
Well that didn't take long. It seems all it took to end our lull of tropical activity was a flip of the calendar from July to August. Of course, August is historically one of the most active tropical months.
Take a look at this graph. Taking all the Hurricane Seasons dating back to '66 and adding up all the storm activity you see a clear spike really start during the month of August. The rate of storms only increases as we head into early September -- known as the peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
But why is Hurricane activity most active at the very end of summer heading into fall? It's because the heating of the Earth - and the ocean - lags behind the most intense radiation from the sun which comes on the Summer Solstice. It takes a while for the water to warm up which then in turns provides the fuel necessary to ignite hurricanes.
By the month of August, the waters throughout the Atlantic have warmed quite a lot -- reaching the magic treshold of around 28°C (82°F) throughout the Gulf / Caribbean / and even the central Atlantic. And this year the waters are even warmer than usual.
So now we're left with Tropical Depression Four -- soon to be Tropical Storm Colin -- and we'll see where he decides to spin. Here's a look at the variety of computer models used to forecast hurricanes all plotted on the same map.
It looks as if TD 4 / Colin is headed to the west-northwest over the next 7-10 days. As of right now, it looks as if the storm will take a turn to the north, missing the coast. However, at this point it really is too early to say that this will not impact the East Coast.
As always, we'll keep an eye on the storm right here at WWAY both on-air and on the web.
By: Tim Buckley