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Submitted by Tim Buckley on Tue, 08/03/2010 - 8:38am.
As we woke up Tuesday morning we had a new guy in the weather picture, Tropical Storm Colin. TD 4 strengthened as expected enjoying warm water and low wind shear in the open Atlantic. It's moving at an incredible clip -- about 20-25 mph -- and will make the several hundred mile journey toward the Leeward Islands by Wednesday night into Thursday.
Here's the latest info on Colin:
Heading into the next several days we need to watch Colin very closely. It's track around the sub-tropical ridge will determine its impact for us here on the Carolina Coast. There look to be two distinct possible tracks.
One, a strong turn to the right -- taking the storm out to sea, toward Bermuda (right hand side of the forecast cone). This would be good news for us, sending nothing but some swells to our shores. In fact, this track is historically favored in storms that formed right where Colin has.
The other possibility, Colin finds a weakness in the ridge and drifts toward the left -- toward the East Coast (left hand side of the forecast cone). This would mean a possible landfall in the Southeast, and even here at home.
Most models are currently taking the storm out to sea toward Bermuda, but we'll have to keep a very close eye on Colin to see just how close he comes to us. One good thing, it looks like some moderate wind shear will come into play once Colin nudges past the Caribbean Islands which will work to prevent much further strengthening -- keeping him a Tropical Storm.
Feel like August now? Buckle your seatbelts, there will be plenty more storm tracking rides over the weeks and months ahead, especially in this active 2010 Hurricane Season.
One other interesting note on this Tuesday morning. An interesting coastal eddy formed overnight just offshore of Morehead City. You can see its tightly wrapped spin on the satellite image here from this morning. We even saw a few showers lighting up the radar map and coming ashore in Onslow county in the early AM.
As for the current weather pattern - well what is there to say about it? It's summer in the South! We'll really increase the heat and humidity by mid-week and should see a return to a few heat advisories by Wednesday / Thursday and Friday.
Stay cool out there!
By: Tim Buckley