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Submitted by Tim Buckley on Mon, 09/13/2010 - 8:20am.
We've already exhausted the Frankenstein jokes, but at this point Hurricane Igor really is a monster. A strong Category 4 bordering on a Category 5 storm is pretty impressive for a storm this far east. From here, the game becomes not the intensity but the track.
Being on the road at Alabama this weekend, I was in a bit of a 'weather bubble' paying more attention to college football than to weather maps. The first thing I did last night when I got back was check out the satellite images and man was I impressed. When I left early Friday, Igor was a Tropical Depression - suffering in the Eastern Atlantic. Sunday evening, he had strengthened into the near Category 5 storm that he is today.
As far as Igor's path is concerned, it's DeJa Vu all over again. The storm is strikingly similar to Hurricane Earl both in it's path and it's intensity. From here, it looks to follow a similar, but not identical path. There are a few factors that look to guide it's path over the next several days.
One of the main players will be the cold front that passed through our area this weekend bringing in the dry air to our area. That is now making it's way offshore and will continue east over the next several days. Many models are forecasting this trough to entice Igor northward, 'picking up' the storm on it's way bringing it north toward Bermuda. This would mean a minimal impact on the East Coast outside of the rip currents and high surf at area beaches. That's 'Scenario A'.
If this trough is unsuccessful in altering Igor's path, then he would continue more due west. This changes the path drastically, bringing it much closer to the East Coast. From there, it looks as if there is another weak trough moving toward the East Coast late this week that may or may not be enough to keep Igor off the coast. That's 'Scenario B'.
'Scenario A' with the early northward curve is the more likely of the two at this point as you can see on the model paths. But, it's just too early to say for sure. We're not sounding the 'all clear' just yet, especially with a monster Category 4 bordering on Category 5 storm.
As far as our weather over the next several days, enjoy it. Lot's of sunshine with low humidity making for pleasantly warm afternoons across the area. Hope you can take some time to be outside!
That's all for now.
By: Tim Buckley