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STORMTRACK 3: Latest on Igor & Julia from the National Hurricane Center (11:00 a.m.)

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HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY TOPS OF -60C TO
-70C. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.5...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT. THE UW-CIMSS SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION INDEX STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY EYEWALL WILL
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
SHORT TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT ARE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON LONGER TIME SCALES...ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IGOR IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AND SHOW
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
THROUGH THAT TIME. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE...HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO THE VERY UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE TIME
RANGES. THEREFORE...AT THOSE TIMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE STRONGEST MODEL...THE SHIPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9 KNOTS...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE...AND A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...SHOWS IGOR TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 12 HOURS GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FROM 12
THROUGH 48 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TRENDS TOWARD THE TVCN
CONSENSUS MODEL FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
AND THE TRACK OF IGOR. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MOVE IGOR SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN KEEP THIS RIDGE FARTHER
EAST AND ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AND RECURVE AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NOGAPS AND HWRF ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD OF THE
GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT THESE TIMES AND IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.5N 49.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.9N 50.8W 135 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.7N 52.3W 130 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 53.7W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 20.6N 55.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 58.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 25.5N 60.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 29.0N 63.5W 100 KT

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IGOR MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

##########

TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 26.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE RAINFALL THREAT FROM JULIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLANDS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

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