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Get used to the cold, it's here to stay!

A lot of times during the late fall and early winter winter cold spells are followed quickly by warm ups -- not the case this time! This cold weather that's settled into the area right now is here for the long haul. We're looking ahead in the forecast and not seeing much relief in sight. Let's take a look at the maps.

First of all -- look at how much colder we are this morning compared to yesterday! Above we have the 24 hour temperature change as of 8am today which shows you how strong the front was that pushed through yesterday. Yesterday morning we we downright balmy when we hit our high temperature of 70 degrees - now this morning we're freezing (literraly) with lows in the upper 20's to low 30's. Brrr!

Now the big question is how long will this cold weather last? Turns out as of right now, we don't know for sure - but it's going to be a long time. In fact, it looks like we'll be cold and winter-like for at least 7-10 days here in the Carolinas with morning lows at or below freezing each and every day. Here's why... take a look at some of the long range models we're tracking.

These forecast maps from the GFS (Global Forecast System) show the approximate position of the Jet Stream in blue over the US over the next ten days. As a general rule, the colder air will be confined north of the jet stream with the warmer air being confined south of the jet stream. Read 'em and weep!

Jet Stream Now:


Jet Stream Day 5 (Next Monday):


Jet Stream Day 7 (Next Thursday):

Jet Stream Day 10 (Next Sunday):

As you can see, the pattern just plain doesn't change too much! We see a large trough (dip in the Jet Stream) over the East Coast right now lasting all the way through early next week. About a week from now, the trough actually gets stronger - which leads us to believe even colder air lies ahead for us. This would mean some highs in the 40's with lows in the 20's. 

Thinking aloud here... if we could get a nice little storm system to come down into that flow it wouldn't be out of the question for someone here in the Carolinas to get some measurable snow. And we're not talking about Boone or Asheville either; more like Charlotte, Raleigh, and even in the Eastern Carolinas.

Until we blog again....

- TB

By: Tim Buckley


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