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A Canadian cool down and a tropical shut down

It's going to feel a lot more like fall soon. Big-time pattern changes across the country and across the world will make for some drastically different weather in the next 5-10 days. The first cold fall air mass will drop down from Canada, and the Tropics are temporarily shutting down right around the peak of hurricane season. What a difference a few days makes!

Here Comes the Cool Air...

Our coldest dome of high pressure in months is about to drop south out of Canada. Right now, this high is already causing widespread lows in the 30's in southern Canada and in the Rocky Mountains. As it drops south, folks in the high plains need to be on the lookout for frost - yes frost!

This serious cold air is in great contrast to the rest of the airmasses in the United States right now. For that reason, it's going to bring about some big changes in our overall weather pattern. As it moves south, we expect to see some potent thunderstorms forming out ahead of it for Thursday and Friday. Once the high settles into the East Coast - we're going to be on the lookout for some tricky coastal weather. The warm ocean waters will be a great source of instability in the cooler airmass and could make for some showery / stormy days along the coast, even a possibility of a waterspout or two. 

How cool does it get in the Carolinas?

For us, the cool air is certainly not going to be COLD. I don't want to give you the wrong idea. But for us, we will be seeing highs in the 70's and lows nearing the 50's by the time Friday and Saturday roll around. A big wild card right now is trying to pin down how much sunshine we'll see each day. With a flow off of the warm ocean, there's a good chance that we'll be mostly cloudy both days - which could keep temps down as low as the mid 70's.

If you have any late Summer / early Fall getaways to the mountains planned for this weekend, be prepared for the elements! Anywhere from Asheville, to Boone, to Tennessee will be subject to overnight lows in the 40's - with few places getting out of the 60's during the day. It'll feel like the leaves should already be at their peak!

A Tropical Slow Down

Our tropical wave train is taking a little bit of an extended break right now. While Maria is still kicking out there, there are very few waves lining up off the African coast - and much of the central Atlantic quite quiet. This is rare for this time of season, as it is usually the peak of our activity. The longer this lull in activity over Africa can last, the better our chances of missing out on a big hurricane hit in our backyard.

Having said that, the cool weather pattern we're heading into can sometimes cause the tropics to bubble up. If you think about it - Mother Nature is squashing out the heat and humidity over the east with nice fair weather. The cooler and more stable the East becomes, the relatively warm waters of the Gulf, and the Southeast Atlantic coast become favored places for rising air / lowering pressure / and thunderstorm formation.

Simply put, when big cold highs come into the East, you often can get a weak tropical storm or hurricane to form offshore in the Southeast or the Gulf. There are no signs of that right now, but it's something I'll be watching heading into next week.

It'll be interesting to watch the changes and see how the weather pans out. After months of monotony (Partly sunny, chance of storms) it can be nice to switch things up for a bit!

- TB

By: Tim Buckley


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