First - lets start with things that are finite.
Estimated $39M cost of building the stadium
Borne by taxpayers unless another private entity come forth prior to the vote and even then we may not know how much the private entity will kick in.
There is no section which requires Atlanta or Mandalay to guarantee a minimum payment to the city should attendance be mis-stated. I would like to have seen Atlanta commit to 5 years of guaranteed $400,000 lease payments regardless of attendance
We do know that comparable teams/cities they mention are averaging 2% of the metro population for attendance at the game.
We also know that they estimate 3% of Wilmington metro population to attend each game.
This is a 50% INCREASE over comparable cities.
Why the discrepancy?
NSS does mention "nearby military bases" but that's over 79 miles from here and Bragg is 90+ miles from here. Yet when they did their demographic studies of comparable cities they used a radius of 35 miles.
Now if attendance is overstated so are the economic impact revenues. There is also no mention of previous attempts at hosting minor league baseball here in Wilmington and why this report projects so MUCH better attendance than previous teams. The attendance figures they are estimating seem to be almost 8 times greater than the average attendance at a Roosters game. Yet, in order to make this estimate they have to rely on projections, possibilities and bigger demographic areas.
Now Mr T the report is slick and professionally done and I expected nothing less of NSS.
But it ignores history and the current status of downtown.
We are currently on our 4th attempt to get a developer for the nearby convention center hotel - OOOOOPsssss
The convention center itself is not fully booked (this is not a bad thing because the CC is still in it's infancy)and will not be fully booked any time within the next 5 years if I remember correctly. The report fails to address this - OOOOOPPPPPsssss
I'm all for economic development and incentives and love baseball but now is NOT the time to be giving away THIS big an incentive, with no guarantees from the other side.
Let me put this in every day terms.
If Mr. McCoy and Mr Fulton were to try to break the lease on their apartments the complex would charge them a lease breaking fee OR make them pay the full contract terms then let them out.
The deal is too one sided with the city accepting way too much financial risk.......
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