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Submitted by George Elliott on Fri, 08/24/2012 - 12:16pm.
It’s the first meteorological month of the autumn season, and this September is likely to be a rather mild one for the majority of the country. The apex of the above normal temperature regime will likely be in a similar area as has the past summer season, i.e., the mid-section of the U.S.
From the Southern and Central Plains, through the Midwest, look for a warmer than normal September, with a likely chance of a very warm (compared to average, that is) month in Oklahoma through Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois.
The only area that is likely to clock in below the seasonal average is the Pacific Northwest and coastal areas of Oregon and California. Mild to above average temperatures are likely for the Deep South, the Southeast, and up and down the eastern seaboard.
Locally, our average high temperatures range from the upper 80’s on the first day of the month, but quickly dropping into the middle-80 range within a few days, and then slowly but steadily falling into the lower 80’s, bottoming out with an average high temperatures of 80ish the last day of September. Average lows are about 70ish the first day, but a steady (albeit slow) drop into the 60’s is the norm for the month. By month’s end, the average low is around 61 degrees.
As far as extreme temperatures go, it’s been as warm as 100 degrees on the 4th in 1925, and a cool as 42 degrees on the 25th in 1887. As you can see, record lows during September are not really that cold. Record highs, however, are easily into the 90’s. Not too bad when you consider we’re just coming out of the summer months, however.
I think we’ll likely have a pretty close to average temperatures regime shape up for this September. Of course, that comes with the usual variations, but not a lot of extremes are likely in my opinion.
It continues to look a little wetter than normal for the Monsoonal areas of the deep southwestern U.S., as well as areas from the eastern Texas through the Delta area. (Tropical systems can make the whole month seem excessively wet if a storm comes in somewhere, but it still might be only a one, two, or three day event, per se.)
Very dry weather will continue for the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, although there could be some relief over the eastern seaboard. That chance, however, is not that high.
Locally, near average to a little below average is likely, but this forecast does not include tropical systems. No way for forecast for that event, and if any area gets hit by a tropical system, all bets are off, as I mentioned.
Our average rainfall is around 7.84 inches skewed high due to tropical systems). The record rainfall amount in Wilmington was 23.4 inches recorded in September, 1999.
By: George Elliott