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Another NSS lie exposed

One of the arguments the pro side uses for the stadium is that it’s a multi-use facility. In scouring NSS (that “professionally done” study) Chapter 6 pg 75 I noted that they looked at 10 comparable ballparks to generate a number that would indicate an average non MiLB use for this multi-use facility.

http://www.wilmingtonnc.gov/Portals/0/documents/City%20Manager/Baseball/...

But then I noticed the aberration, the Fort Wayne (Ind) Tincaps who came in with 383 non-tenant uses for their stadium. Good for them, no great for them – but this one figure is almost 4 times the nearest team’s number. So in order to get a better picture I eliminated them.
This caused a more realistic number to appear for average non-tenant use - 40.5. I will be kind to the PRO side and round up to 41. Then I reviewed the surveys NSS conducted to see how the ILM estimate was established and I found that NSS used “Interest” as a means to justify estimates.
This is total unmitigated bunk.
So, lets look even closer at what NSS says ILM will host: Pg 80
68 braves home games
4 college games (I will give them this in the hope that it comes true (but Marc Lashley will disagree I’m sure)
10 high school games ? Nope – cost prohibitive according to the coaches interviewed. This would double busing costs as now both teams would then have to travel to this stadium
2 other sports. Sorry this also goes to 0. Hammerheads are out, as are the Sharks
1 concert. OK this is a wish but I will leave it in.
45 Miscellaneous. Oh this is a big error. Taking out Fort Wayne, the average for miscellaneous events drops to 21 events.
NSS came up with 130 events that includes 68 Braves home games. The number should have been closer to 89
My figures are 91 total events or 91 – 68 = 23 non tenant uses !!!
I totally missed this when I read, and re-read, the NSS survey. The Fort Wayne Tincap numbers totally skewed the average results. By talking them out, I got a more realistic view of what we could expect. Sure Azalea festival will add a couple to this list but I do not see HS graduations outdoors in May/June.
One final note. Remember the substitution effect for spending? All of these non tenant uses are events that would happen whether the stadium was here, or not. Heck they already exist !!! So the economic impact of these non-tenant events is ZERO on the city. The ONLY event that is new, at this stadium, would be the Braves games themselves.
Sorry but the numbers contained within NSS are becoming less and less reliable.
Because of this the "economic benefit" is disappearing ! If we have to rely on the ballgames ONLY - we LOSE !!!! Lynchburg is poorly attended, and we, historically,have not supported the Roosters, or the Waves.
Remember, as Chuck (Duke) spews his bile about all the "multi" uses for this facility? Well THAT other use is about 21 events.
God help us if this passes

Vog

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