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BY GEORGE: November Outlook

November already? Yes, and as we head into the second to the last month of 2012, I expect the only two clearly defined areas of abnormal temperature regimes to be the Pacific Northwest, where it will be a cooler than average year, and the Southwest, Central and Southern Rockies, and the Plains from Nebraska south through Texas, where a mild November is likely.

Locally, our average highs begin in the lower 70’s the first part of November, and steadily drop into the middle 60’s. Our average lows start in the upper 40’s, dropping to the lower 40’s by the end of the month.

Our record high was 87 degrees on the 2nd in 1974, while our record low was 16 degrees on the 26th, 1950. All “official” data is from the Wilmington International Airport.

The average date of the first freeze at the airport is November 16th, but inland and low-lying areas on average have their first frost in the early part of the month. Coastal areas, of course, keep milder temperature longer due to the warming influence of the ocean.

I think the eastern U.S. will trend very close to average this November, but a slight cool bias is possible over the far northeast corner of the country, and a warm bias over the Midwest.

Precipitation is likely to be below normal over the Pacific Northwest, as well as the Midwest, but it could be wetter and snowier over California into Nevada. Elsewhere, no major trend or pattern is showing up, and we should have a rather variable pattern with frequent but quick moving weather systems across the country. One or two could become major storms, but overall, I think we’ll have many fast west to east moving storms.

Locally, we average around 3.30 inches of rain during the month. Back in November of 1972 we had a record of 7.87 inches. One thing you can say, we’re pretty safe from any major flood threat due to tropical systems.
 

By: George Elliott

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