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Excellent Article

Tim, excellent article that succinctly highlights the challenges that meteorologists face. I think that although NHC did a superb job with their forecast, they did a huge disservice by dropping the hurricane warnings. The public is largely ignorant. Explaining warm core vs. cold core is so far over the average person's head, that it is a waste of time and not helpful to the public. This is not Meteorology 101, people need to know the IMPACT of the storm, not the process that is generating it. I also agree that it is time for the Safir Simpson scale to go. Joe Bastardi has been working with a scoring system that utilizes pressure and wind speed to predict the intensity of hurricanes. That would be a good start. A storm impact scale similar to the Regional Snowfall Index developed by Kocin and Uccellini would be a great way to inform the public of the danger and expected impact of landfalling hurricanes beyond maximum sustained wind speed. I know that several papers and talks will focus on the meteorology behind Sandy and her impact from the Caribbean to the Northeast. I hope that at least some of those presentations can focus on a better way to present the potential risks to lives and property and that a new approach can be implemented by next hurricane season.


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