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BUCKLEY'S BLOG: A soggy start to the week; winter makes a weekend comeback

A soggy spring-like start to the week won't get any praise from the chamber of commerce, but we may be longing for the warmer temperatures we have now by the end of the weekend when we're back in winter's chill. Lots of change to come in the weather, as is typical for February!

Showery Early-week Setup

The weather this Monday will make for lots of showers throughout the Southeast. A slow moving cold front is picking up lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dumping it over land. 

While the showers do last on and off throughout the day and even into tonight, there a few things to make for a silver lining. No severe weather this time around with few little chance for thunder, and no threat for flooding. 

The aforementioned cold front will cross the area as we head into the daybreak hours tomorrow. With this front dipping to the south, just enough dry air should move in to keep most of Tuesday dry -- but soon enough the pesky rain will be back. Wednesday looks every bit as wet as today is with a new wave of low pressure forming on the front and riding up the coast.

What does all this rain add up to by the time we hit mid-week? Our in-house model estimates anywhere from 1-2" total. I wouldn't be shocked to see a few places see as much as 3" of rain from the combination of systems. Again, this wouldn't be a terrible thing since we could use a little rain around here. 

Wintry Weekend Weather?

After we dry things out nice and easy, cold air is really poised to come back with a vengeance by the end of the weekend. This map below shows the upper-air pattern across the country as estimated by the reliable European model. The lighter, cooler colors show cold air advancing farther south. 

This type of pattern can sometimes spin up storms. Right now, there isn't enough info to forecast any storms along the coast for Saturday or Sunday, but there have been hints at it. If a storm were to form, the exact location of the low (ie- west or east of us) would be extremely important in determining if any parts of North Carolina could see a bit of snow out of it. 

Again, don't go telling folks I'm forecasting snow; I'm not. But, if a storm were to form on the coast this weekend, it would at least be interesting enough to examine the snow question. We'll track it for ya and let you know of any changes. 

At any rate - it will get cold by Sunday! Expect highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's to make a brief comeback. By mid-February most all cool downs are brief since the sun angle continues to increase. 

Hurry spring!


By: Tim Buckley


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