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Submitted by Tim Buckley on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 10:02am.
The computer models have been flip-flopping all week, but it looks more than likely that Southeastern North Carolina will at least see SOME flurries Saturday night. When, where, how much? Those are the details to wrestle with on this Friday morning - so let's spell it out for you.
Why / When
A cold front will cross the area early morning Saturday bringing cooler air into play. Then, a weak disturbance will move in behind the front that will try to touch off a few rain showers.
This combination of moisture and a newfound surge of cold air will be what sets the stage for a possible changeover to snow Saturday night. Here's a timeline looking at our Futurecast as of Friday morning.
This is just a model projection, and not an official forecast, but it helps to visualize the situation.
SAT 2PM: Cold front offshore, scatt'd rain showers
SAT 6PM: Scatt'd rain, hints at a snow changeover.
SAT 10PM: Flurries & snow showers scatt'd.
SUN 2AM: Clearing out from here, storm leaves.
How Much, if any?
That is the big question. Computer models have been struggling with how much, if any, snow will accumulate in SE NC with this system. To me, it looks like we will see some flurries / snow showers in the air, and some accumulation on grassy surfaces can't be ruled out. I'd say a coating to as much as 1" is most likely, with 2" being more of an extreme case.
Here's my overall bullet points on the storm:
This will be a LOW impact storm for Southeastern North Carolina. The storm is hitting at nighttime on a weekend. Overall, our temperatures will be cooling from daytime highs well above freezing - so roadways should be relatively warm on the front side of things.
Overall I think that this storm will just be a chance for snow lovers to see a few flakes in the sky, and maybe a little bit on the ground. If you don't like snow, you can sleep through it!
Stay with us for more updates as we fine tune things.
By: Tim Buckley