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BY GEORGE: My Summer Forecast

It’s summer season, and that means it’s time to glance at our future…weatherwise anyway.  The summer months are considered June, July, and August, and my analysis shows that it will be warmer than average over much of the Southwest, through the Central and Southern Plains, continuing east through the southern states, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley’s, and east from there into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The greatest chance of well above average temperatures are in an area from eastern New Mexico and Arizona into the Southern Plains.

A little cooler than average temperatures are likely over the far Northwest, as well as the far northern Midwest.  Elsewhere, it looks pretty close to average.

Locally, I think we’ll average close to normal to slightly above.  Even though most of the south should be a little warmer than average in my opinion, the Southeast coast is likely to be closer to average.  What that means for us is plenty of highs in the mid 80’s into the lower 90’s, with several days well into the 90’s.  Interior regions of our area always are a few degree warmer than coastal areas and Wilmington proper, due to the fact that inland areas don’t enjoy the relative cooling effects of ocean breezes.

Record highs in Wilmington for the summer top out in the lower 100’s, while record lows rarely go be the lower 50’s (not too low, hey?).

Look for a wetter than average summer over the Southern Plains through the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and Mid Atlantic region.  Some of the extra wetness I foresee is tropical related.  I still feel like we’ll see more tropical activity across the eastern U.S. south of the Midwest (of course), so I decided to blend the potential for that possibility into the general summer circulation forecast I made.

Very dry weather will continue over the Rockies and High Plains.

We’ll come out near to a little above average here.  Of course, one big tropical system can skew the data, but the general summer pattern I see does not lend itself to a very dry season compared to average.

Rainfalls average from 5.00-7.00 inches or so during the summer months, and this due to the heavy afternoon thunderstorm activity we always get, as well as long-term means being influenced by past tropical systems.

So, there you go, as I see it anyway.  Locally it looks pretty mild (not too often extreme heat or cool), and a bit more rain than average.

By: George Elliott


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