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BY GEORGE: Autumn Outlook

It seems like it was just yesterday when we were talking about the summer, now here we are firmly into the autumn.  As we progress through the rest of the season, you will find a few emerging trends this, but mainly pertaining to temperature, which is frequently the case during these transitional periods.  Precipitation patterns are often less pronounced during transitions from season to season, especially during the autumn months, which are normally not that wet across the country, plus it is the season when snow begins to fly.

Much warmer than normal conditions are likely through most of the next couple of months across the far southwestern U.S. as well as southern and central areas of California.  As a matter of fact, much of the west will have a mild fall, with the exception being the Pacific Northwest.  The New England states are likely to have a rather mild autumn as well.

The South is likely to average about average, with a slight cool bias in the Southeast.  Close to the overall average is likely across most of the rest of the east from the Mississippi to the coast.  Keep in mind, however, autumn has widely variable weather patterns, especially into November.

It looks like it will be wetter than average overall for the Pacific Northwest, and little drier than usual over the Mid High Plains.  There will be a light dry bias over the Southwest, but elsewhere, no clear pattern is likely to dominate, especially in light of the fact that the autumn usually does not have many days of excessive precipitation in most locations.  However, the storm tracks and precipitation patterns pick up more vigor the latter half of the fall.  Snow begins to be more common in the higher terrain in October, and lowers to very low levels on a regular basis by November across the country.  We’ve had some mighty big November snowstorms across the country, and that includes from the west coast to the east coast.  Snowfall in the South is rather rare in the autumn months, however.

Locally, our average high starts out around 80 degrees in early October, but drops steadily to the lower 70’s for the average high the end of October.  Lows average from the lower 60’s the beginning of the month to around 50 the end of October.  The highest October temperature recorded was on the 3rd and the 5th in 1986, when we hit 95 degrees.  It’s been as cold as 27 degrees on the 27th, 1962.

By November, the average highs drop from the lower 70’s at the start of the month to the mid 60’s by the end of the month.  Average lows drop from around 40 the first part of the month to the lower 40’s by the end of the month.  We’ve warmed to 87 on the 2nd, 1974 for the warmest recorded November day, and chilled all the way down to 16 degrees on the 26th, 1950.

October and November average very little rain, going from around 3.90 inches in October to 3.30 inches in November on average.  No snow has fallen during October, but we’ve had traces come down in November, and on rare occasions we’ve actually accumulated ½ to 1 inch.  But, those are rare occasions indeed.  Snow chances around here don’t increase until the winter months.  More on that coming up in another report. 

By: George Elliott

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