Numbers don't lie -- but they can mislead

Decades from now, when we flip through the annals of meteorological observation, October 2006 will likely be called a "normal month." Our average daytime high was about 74 degrees, a typical value for early autumn. But if you dig a little deeper, the story gets a lot more complicated. Several days were almost summer-like, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s (or higher) at least five times in Wilmington alone. On the other hand, we had 6 days with temperatures below 68 degrees (including two days with highs in the 50s). So what does it all mean?

One must take care before drawing generalized conclusions when it comes to weather, especially during the transitional months between summer and winter. Our weather becomes more dynamic during these months, with sharp changes in jet stream flow that can lead to huge temperature variation from day to day. Still, the "peaks" and "valleys" balance themselves in the long run.

All during my professional career, I have been amazed by the atmosphere's ability to balance itself. There is an almost clockwork beauty to the entire process: A simple twist in the jet stream can create record chills on the East Coast, while providing warmth and sunshine in the Midwest. A devastating hurricane in the Carolinas can bring much needed rain to crops in Tennessee.

And no matter the advancement in technology, we will likely never understand all the subtle influences that govern our atmosphere. Indeed, forecasting is often an exercise in humility- as it should be.