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NC State researchers predict active hurricane season for 2013

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RALEIGH, NC (NEWS RELEASE) -- Researchers at North Carolina State University forecast an above-average hurricane season for 2013.

2013 should see 13 to 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, according to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences (MEAS), and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, Dr. Dorit Hammerling, postdoctoral research associate in statistics and Bin Liu, research assistant professor in MEAS. This number is higher than the (1950-2012) 62-year average of 10.8 named storms.

Of those named storms, seven to 10 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and three to six may become major hurricanes.

As for the Gulf, this year’s numbers are more in line with historic averages: Xie's data indicate the likelihood of three to five named storms forming, of which one to two will become hurricanes.

Xie's methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. For more details about Xie's methodology, input data and predictions, visit the research group's website.

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They predict a very active

They predict a very active season every year. We should know by now that the weather in the southeastern US is anything but predictable. 70 degrees on Monday and snow on Friday in January a few years ago. Tornados in December in 2012. Weather forecasters make predictions about unpredictable things. Lately they have been completely wrong about our hurricane seasons. Raleigh is full of less than knowledgeable people in not just government positions but the media as well. I bet they predict an active season next year too.

At the end of the day

You listen to the blowhards on the Weather Channel.
Accuweather
Storm2K
Dr Masters
CSU
and others and you come to the conclusion that all we can do is sit back, prepare and hope for the best.
I've see years of really bad predictions but also years of very accurate predictions. Seems like in the last couple of years everyone said watch out for NY and New England and then Sandy hit. Even at TS strength it devastated NY/NJ. Imagine a Cat 3 hitting them......
I have wondered recently if we are "due". We project out into the Atlantic Ocean almost asking to be hit.
It's been awfully quiet here the last couple of years........

Vog

Of all the years I've been here...

...and listened to all of the "hurricane prognosticators", I've never heard one say "Based on our expert prediction process, we're going to have a very weak hurricane season this year!"

They wouldn't want to do anything to reduce panic and take away ammuntion from the insurance companies, now would they? They would have to settle for a 5% increase vs. 30% every other year. Heaven forbid the oil companies would have to reduce prices due to the risk reduction and lack of forcast in the gulf. Milk and bread sales would go to the pigs, plywood surpluses would cause havoc due to lowered prices....my, my, my.

Is this starting

already? What first? Milk and bread run on the supermarket? Or run to Lowe's for batteries?