VOTE 2010: Civitas Poll – Pantano holds slim 1 point lead over McIntyre

RALEIGH, NC (NEWS RELEASE) – The battle for North Carolina’s 7th Congressional district seat between Republican candidate Ilario Pantano and Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre is virtually tied, according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 450 registered voters in that district, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for Pantano if the election for United States House of Representatives were held today. Forty-five percent said they would vote for McIntyre, and nine percent of voters said they are undecided.

However, when looking at those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Pantano’s lead jumps to a 52 percent-42 percent margin. In addition, Republicans are heavily backing Pantano (81 percent-14 percent), along with unaffiliated voters by a 61 percent-34 percent margin. Democratic voters are in support of McIntyre by 71 percent-16 percent.

Furthermore, 46 percent of voters think McIntyre is a moderate compared to 21 percent who think he is a conservative. Nineteen percent of voters said he is a liberal, and 14 percent said they are not sure.

“McIntyre touts the fact that he is a conservative Blue Dog Democrat; this has given him an edge in appealing to both moderate and conservative voters in the district,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “But this has also turned off portions of hard-line Democratic, especially African-American, voters who have become disappointed with McIntyre and his diversion from voting with the President.”

Pantano, a veteran and small businessman, seems to have capitalized upon an active campaign as 54 percent of voters in the district have an opinion of him (29 percent favorable-25 percent unfavorable), for a net +4 favorability rating. Twenty-seven percent of voters said they are neutral, and 18 percent said they have no opinion of his candidacy.

McIntyre, currently serving his 7th term, holds the advantage in name recognition among voters as the incumbent. However, with 68 percent of voters having an opinion of him, his favorability margin stands at 30 percent favorable-38 percent unfavorable. Twenty-seven percent of voters said their opinion is neutral, and 18 percent said they have no opinion of him.

“The Republican tide is making this race very competitive, and the intensifying rhetoric between the two campaigns bears this out. This race will be very close and may be determined by which candidate can establish himself among moderate and conservative voters who are heavily expected at the polls,” added Hayes.

The district is rated as an R+5 district by the Cook Political Report – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 450 registered voters was taken September 24-26 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

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NRCC Comment:

“It’s no surprise that Mike McIntyre is in the fight of his political life. Instead of standing up for North Carolina families, McIntyre stood up for Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and more big government – even the job-killing death tax. McIntyre’s desperate attempt to disguise himself as a moderate is failing. The Seventh District is ready for new leadership, and Ilario Pantano is ready to answer that call. McIntyre’s days as a Congressman are numbered.”

– Jon Thompson, NRCC Spokesman

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Frank Williams, Chairman of the N.C. 7th Congressional District Republican Party, issued the following statement following the release of the poll results:

“Today’s poll results represent a seismic shift from a few short months ago, when this seat was considered safe for Mike McIntyre. This marked shift clearly reveals that the people of southeastern North Carolina have rejected the failed economic policies of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barack Obama and the current Democrat majority in Congress. Today’s results also prove voters understand that, despite his assertions to the contrary, Mike McIntyre is an integral part of Nancy Pelosi’s team in Washington. Mike McIntyre votes with Nancy Pelosi over 90% of the time, and the people are sending a message that his pattern of voting for Nancy Pelosi’s agenda is wholly inconsistent with their values. The people of southeastern North Carolina – and I speak as someone who was born and raised here – are gravitating to Ilario Pantano because they want a common-sense leader who will stand up and fight for them in Washington.”

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Response from Congressman McIntyre

Congressman Mike McIntyre’s campaign responded to the Civitas poll by saying:

” We do not take any vote for granted, and we are excited to have the enthusiastic support of Democrats, Republicans and Independents moving us forward to an Election Day victory and that’s why our polls show us in the lead.

The political atmosphere across the country has more people engaged, which is great for democracy in action.

As citizens educate themselves about the candidates and issues, there is a choice—

Mike McIntyre who concentrates on job creation and economic development (endorsed by US Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business); fights for senior citizens to protect their Social Security and Medicare (recognized by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare); and has worked to enhance and expand services for our veterans (endorsed by the VFW-PAC).

Or

Ilario Pantano who supports reckless trade policies that will ship jobs oversees, seeks to privatize social security and who is unfamiliar with Southeastern North Carolina.

The clear choice is Mike McIntyre.”

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From the North Carolina Democratic Party

“Civitas and the NRCC can use all the smoke, mirrors, and bogus polls they want, but they can never hide Ilario Pantano’s questionable morals, his history as a Wall Street hack for Goldman Sachs, his support for privatizing Social Security, or for free trade agreements that will send thousands of American jobs to China and Mexico. Mike McIntyre has been a strong, effective, and independent voice for the people of southeastern North Carolina. He has fought to save jobs and has always stood up for North Carolina families and our military. The only poll that matters takes place November 2nd, and Mike McIntyre will win that one.”

Andrew Whalen