Drought deepens as rainfall falls short of monthly averages

WILMINGTON, N.C. (WWAY) — Recent rainfall is providing some short-term relief, but drought conditions continue to grip much of southeastern North Carolina.

Showers on Sunday brought just under half an inch of rain to Wilmington, ending a nearly two-week dry stretch.

Despite that, much of the Cape Fear region remains in drought, with severe to extreme conditions affecting dozens of counties statewide.

North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council Chairman Klaus Albertin said recent rainfall has fallen short of what is needed to reverse long-term deficits.

“It’s going to take a number of months to really get out of it,” Albertin said. “I think Wilmington is probably 10 inches below normal since September, so you know, that’s a big deficit to dig out of.”

Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information shows the Cape Fear region would need more than 10 inches of rain in a single month to fully eliminate the drought, with some parts of western North Carolina needing even more.

Looking ahead, Albertin said seasonal rainfall may bring slight improvement, but likely won’t be enough to end the drought.

“May tends to get 4–5 inches of rainfall historically,” he said. “We could see some improvement, but we’re definitely not getting out of the drought. I think it’s likely that conditions do get worse.”

Experts say another challenge is how the ground is responding to rainfall after prolonged dryness.

Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist with the North Carolina State Climate Office, said dry soils are limiting how much water is absorbed.

“When we do get a decent rain after such a long dry spell, most of that moisture will stay at the very top level of the soil,” Davis said. “The top of the soil may seem like it’s wet enough, but underneath that, you still have a lot of dryness.”

Davis said steady, consistent rainfall over time is needed to improve conditions.

“If we can get an inch or two of rain every week over these next few months, that will be ideal for chipping away at those rainfall deficits and also for slowly building that soil moisture back up,” he said.

Dry conditions are also contributing to increased wildfire risk, as low soil moisture, dry vegetation and persistent low humidity create favorable conditions for fires.