No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls suggest, as Netanyahu’s fate hangs in the balance

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s election ended Tuesday with no clear winner, exit polls indicate, likely setting off weeks of jockeying before a prime minister is declared or another round of elections is scheduled.

An inconclusive result would leave Israel in political limbo after the country’s first national election since Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023. The vote served as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime leadership.

Exit polls released by major Israeli TV stations suggest that neither Netanyahu’s political bloc nor that of his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Those polls indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc won 50 seats, the opposition won 52-53 and Arab parties won 17-18. The strong showing by Arab-led parties could allow them to decide the next prime minister, but both blocs have until now refused to partner with them.

Like all surveys, exit polls are subject to potential error. Preliminary results are expected in the coming hours. Final results are expected in the coming days and may vary from the exit polls.

The pivotal election comes as Israel wrestles with unresolved wars, lingering grief and anger over Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and deep divisions over its longest-serving leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, who voted just after midday, faces an array of parties seeking to drive him from power, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

More than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., the highest turnout at that time in decades, and 8 percentage points higher than in the last elections in 2022, according to the Central Elections Committee.

The race is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule, which had left Israelis bitterly divided on a host of issues even before the deadliest attack in its history. The resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stoked worldwide outrage, straining ties with Israel’s closest allies and fueling a rise in antisemitism.

Among Israelis, the election is widely seen as a struggle over the character of the state, pitting Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against those seeking to preserve its liberal and secular foundations.

Over 7 million people are eligible to vote, and tens of thousands have reportedly arrived from overseas.

Arab turnout could be crucial

In Israel’s fragmented parliamentary politics, no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority. There is a chance that neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the group of parties hoping to remove him has enough support for a majority.

That could set off weeks of negotiations before a leader is declared.

“This is a very moving and fateful moment,” Netanyahu said before the exit polls. He told journalists after voting that he believes the Arab parties that could make or break the election “are receiving massive, truly massive, support. They are heading to the polls in unprecedented numbers.”

Netanyahu in past elections has warned of high Arab turnout to energize his own right-wing voters. While he did not provide evidence for his latest claim, turnout appeared to have increased significantly in Arab communities and liberal bastions, according to data from the Central Elections Committee.

In another sign of concern, Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party petitioned to extend voting hours past 10 p.m., but the election commission ruled against it, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had rejected the proposed extension and called on voters to ignore Netanyahu’s “scare tactics.”

Israel’s Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers — if other parties agree to join forces with them.

“Our vote will change the government,” said Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party, while voting was still underway. Arabs in Israel make up about 20% of the population.

Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, known for taunting Palestinian detainees and saying some Palestinians in Gaza are “not even people,” warned that “it will be Mansour Abbas’ government” if Netanyahu and his allies don’t win.