Why are flu cases and deaths significantly lower compared to last year?

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, flu numbers in North Carolina are significantly down compared to this time last year.

WWAY spoke with Wilmington Health Infectious Disease Physician and New Hanover Regional Medical Center Chief Epidemiologist Paul Kamitsuka to find out why.

“We have not seen flu,” Dr. Kamitsuka said. “There’s no question. Locally, we have the highest number ever of COVID patients who are hospitalized and we haven’t even seen the post-Christmas surge that we’re expecting.”

Dr. Kamitsuka says about one in four patients tested for COVID-19 at NRHMC test positive.

Typically, the flu season is in full swing by now. In North Carolina, state health officials reported 23 people had died from the flu by early Jan 2019. So far this year, only one flu-related death has been reported in the state.

So why are COVID-19 numbers soaring and flu cases remain stagnant?

“It’s not like we’re not looking for it,” Dr. Kamitsuka said. “For example, the test we use in the hospital for covid for patients who are admitted automatically tests for flu. We simply have not seen it. So it is indeed not present in the community yet.”

There is still a chance for the flu to rear its head.

“Sometimes the flu season starts in this area as early as October,” he said. “Traditionally, it tended to start when kids came back to college from Christmas vacation, so that’s when the large numbers would happen, in early January, right now. Sometimes it could be delayed even further into February.”

Children not being in school full-time could also be a factor.

“In contrast to COVID, where kids may be a little less likely to transmit COVID, flu they clearly are major transmitters.”

Dr. Kamitsuka says both viruses transmit through droplets.

“We have a lot more presence of COVID in the community right now and that’s why that’s spreading,” he said. “If we had a lot of flu, it would spread also, probably in a similar way.”

He emphasized the importance of wearing a mask and socially distancing, even when at home if guests are visiting you.

Dr. Kamitsuka added that our neighbors in the southern hemisphere can help project what our flu season will be like and they had a mild flu season this year as well.

He says it’s still not too late to get your flu vaccine.