UNCW professor says Iran counter-attack on U.S. base not likely to lead to escalation

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — President Donald Trump announced Monday afternoon that Israel and Iran have agreed in principle to a cease-fire that would pause and possibly end what Trump calls the “12-Day War.”

But before his announcement, some people here in the Cape Fear were worrying about a possible escalation between Iran and the US.

Trump’s announcement came hours after Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at a US military base in Qatar, in response to the American bombing of Iranian nuclear sites Saturday.

Trump said no Americans were harmed, and Iran gave the US advanced notice of the attack.

Iran said its missile attack on Monday matched the number of bombs dropped by the US over the weekend.

Daniel Masters is an associate professor of International Studies at UNCW.

He said the ceasefire may be coming at the right time before things escalate.

“Usually in events such as this, it is the attack, the expected counterattacks and then everyone steps back and tries to return and return to a more stable, normal condition,” Masters said.

Wilmington resident Lauren Santana said she hopes the US will void a repeat of a war from more than 50 years ago.

“We don’t want another like Vietnam situation where we’re entering into something that we really have no business being in,” Santana said. “You know, like of course we want to avoid needless death and whatnot, but especially with the tariffs, that has the potential to just tank our economy.”

Masters said, if tensions do escalate, trying to force a regime change in Iran would not be well-supported by the American public, due to previous American efforts in the Middle East.

“And that was the bluster that we heard on social media regarding that and that’s where I know that, that the American people themselves will be very, very hesitant for this because those are the kinds of wars that, generally speaking, people want to stay away from right now. Cause you can’t predict the outcome of a regime change. I mean, they’re, they’re horribly messy outcomes.”

Iran’s attack on Monday was similar to their response to Trump’s killing of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani 5 years ago – firing missiles at a US military outpost, and then hostilities ended for the time being.

The new ceasefire goes into effect Tuesday.