Cape Fear drought continues as El Niño could bring wetter summer conditions

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — Rain is in the forecast heading into the weekend, but drought conditions continue to grip parts of southeastern North Carolina as officials monitor worsening impacts across the Cape Fear region.

Portions of Brunswick and Columbus counties are now classified under extreme drought conditions, raising concerns about water supplies, vegetation, and wildfire risk.

Wilting plants, dry soil, and water restrictions have become increasingly common across the region despite some rain last week.

Brandon Locklear, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said the roots of the drought stretch back to the winter months.

Even with a winter snowstorm earlier this year, Locklear said the region experienced a La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings colder and drier-than-normal conditions to the Southeast.

Now,he said the National Weather Service is watching for a transition to El Niño conditions later this year.

“What it’s showing is that we got a strong El Niño by late summer,” Locklear said.

Locklear said a stronger El Niño pattern could bring a wetter and warmer-than-normal summer to the Cape Fear region. He added that El Niño conditions can also influence hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin.

“What the research has shown is that when we have an El Niño, it tends to reduce development of hurricanes and tropical systems out over the Atlantic Ocean due to increased wind shear,” Locklear said.

Locklear emphasized that steady rainfall, rather than short, heavy downpours, is what the region needs most to recover from drought conditions.

“Even the heavy downpours run off,” Locklear said. “The ground doesn’t have enough time to absorb all that rainfall. It does go into our reservoirs and can replenish reservoirs, but when we get slower rates, the ground can actually start soaking up some of the rain, and vegetation can start soaking up some of the moisture.”

Forecasters also noted that El Niño conditions can lead to increased turbulence for air travelers across the United States because of stronger wind shear in the atmosphere.