Report warns tariffs could cost North Carolina farmers $695M and 8,000 job losses
RALEIGH, NC (WWAY) — The John Locke Foundation warns that trade policies branching from aggressive U.S. tariffs could cause severe economic damage on North Carolina’s agricultural sector, rural communities, and the broader state economy.
The report, “How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture: NC Farmers at Risk,” authored by Dr. Jeffrey Dorfman of North Carolina State University, estimates that reductions in agricultural exports could potentially cost North Carolina farmers approximately $695 million — roughly one-third of the state’s average annual net farm income.
The study finds that such losses would result into nearly 3,000 direct job losses in agriculture and forestry, as farmers reduce production in response to lost export markets and falling prices. Additional job losses would occur in food processing, manufacturing, and transportation, bringing total statewide job losses to roughly 8,000.
“When agriculture is targeted in international trade disputes, North Carolina is especially vulnerable,” said Donald Bryson, president and CEO of the John Locke Foundation. “This report shows that the costs are not abstract — they mean lost farm income, lost jobs, and real harm to rural communities.”
Using historical trade disruptions and peer-reviewed economic research, the report identifies pork, cotton, tobacco, and sweet potatoes as the North Carolina products most at risk, due to their heavy reliance on export markets and sensitivity to price declines when foreign demand falls.
When indirect and ripple effects are included — such as reduced spending by farm families and lower activity in processing and manufacturing — the report estimates total economic losses of up to $1.9 billion, equivalent to more than 2 percent of North Carolina’s gross state product. In several rural counties, projected income losses would rival those seen during major economic downfalls.
The report concludes that while tariff threats are sometimes used to pursue trade concessions, they carry substantial economic risks. It argues that stable, pro-market trade policies offer the best protection for North Carolina farmers and the businesses and communities that depend on them.
To speak with a member of the staff or the author of the report, please contact Locke’s Deputy Director of Communications, Brenée Goforth Swanzy, at bgoforth@lockehq.org
