Why chocolate will cost more for Easter despite cocoa prices cooling, silver lining on egg prices

(ABC NEWS) — Shoppers should expect the cost of some essential Easter basket items, like a big chocolate bunny, to be higher this year, despite a dip in cocoa prices over the past several months.

Approximately 90% of all Easter baskets include chocolate, according to the National Confectioners Association. Although cocoa prices have cooled somewhat in recent months, the change hasn’t reached store shelves yet.

Why Easter chocolate could cost more than usual

David Branch, sector manager for the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, shared insights with ABC News about the pricey Easter basket staple.

Following last year’s record cocoa shortages and price spikes, Branch said “the market is finally showing early signs of stabilizing, but not enough to deliver big price breaks for Easter shoppers.”

Global supply has improved so far this year, but Branch noted that West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa, continues to struggle with weather issues, disease and aging tree stock.

While the dramatic price surges of 2024 and 2025 have cooled, “retail relief will be slow and uneven for consumers in the first half of 2026,” he said.

Despite drops from those historic high cocoa prices, candy makers purchase ingredients months in advance, Branch explained, so inventory on store shelves right now is still priced for those high levels.

“Most Easter chocolates were produced when cocoa was still extremely expensive, so shoppers should expect prices similar to or slightly above Valentine’s Day levels,” he said.

Candy prices — including chocolate — are up nearly 12% year over year, and prices have spiked dramatically over the last five years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Despite this, the National Retail Federation says it expects consumers to spend $3.5 billion on Easter candy alone this year, with shoppers dropping an expected total of $24.9 billion on the holiday overall, surpassing previous spending records.