Meteorologists explain El Niño and possible impacts to upcoming hurricane season

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — We are finally beginning to dry up a little after record rainfall Thursday.  This wet winter is being caused by an El Niño pattern that traditionally brings more rain to the southeastern part of the country.

More than five inches of rain fell across portions of our area these past few days. National Weather Service Meteorologist Tim Armstrong says we are in an El Niño pattern which means higher than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

“We have been tracking El Niño for about 60 years now and this is either the first or second strongest ever recorded,” Armstrong says.

Since the historic flooding last October, it seems as if our area can’t catch a break from the rain, but a change could happen soon.

“There are computer models that have some success in predicting when El Niño begins and ends and most of those are saying by the time summer gets here that El Niño will be on its way out and by next winter we could be looking at its opposite counter part La Niña,” Armstrong said.

Armstrong says the switch could bring a more active hurricane season.

“That’s one thing we are a little worried about for this Fall,” Armstrong said. “With the Atlantic water temperatures already well above normal this could be a nice season if you like a lot of storms out there.”

The current rainy pattern is causing agricultural problems and river flooding, especially along the Northeast Cape Fear River.

“We have had over 18 inches of extra rainfall that we don’t normally expect, above normal around here,” Armstrong says. “If it doesn’t rain another drop from today all the way to July 4th we would finally work off that deficit and be right back down to normal again since October 1st.

He says if we don’t see anymore rain for the rest of February, Wilmington will still end up being average in rainfall.