El Nino to bring wetter winter

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY)– As we progress into our fall and winter months, El Nino is locked-in for the first time in 4 years, which will set us up for a wet winter.    

“We’re not making predictions of exact amounts, but ultimately the probabilities are favoring above normal precipitation. That’s the best we can say for now,” said Adam Wiener, NWS Wilmington Meteorologist.    

El Nino is a reoccurring pattern that causes a change in the global atmospheric circulation. Bringing changes to weather globally, and also locally.   

This oscillation is caused by warmer water in the Pacific Ocean, fueled by weaker trade winds.

“In the case of El Nino, which we’re in currently, the waters are warmer than normal, and this has impacts on the atmosphere as well. And that results in weather changes across the globe,” said Wiener.  

In the southeast, El Nino is associated with wetter weather in the winter months due to a shift in the jet stream.  

“The normal jet stream, it’s usually up near the polar regions. But what happens during a very strong El Nino, a weaker one sets up down near the Gulf of Mexico. When it does that, it just pumps moisture into the area, and that moisture means more rain. So, the clearest thing is that we can definitely expect more rain this winter,” said Dr. Douglas Gamble, UNCW Climatology and Geography Professor.  

But a wetter winter doesn’t necessarily mean a white one. 

“Ultimately, as the moisture source is going to be from the Pacific Ocean, and perhaps from the Gulf and southwest Atlantic Ocean, we can expect more in the way of rainfall. Certainly, I would not be betting on a snowstorm happening here in the winter. But we’ll keep an eye on things of course,” said Wiener.   

Weather is constantly changing. But overall, confidence lies in above average precipitation, with temperatures near normal.   

“We’re definitely going to have wetter periods. There could be a possibility for cooler, but most of the projections I’ve seen are saying that temperatures are going to be close to normal,” said Gamble.  

“The cloudiness that comes with it can bring cooler than normal temperatures. But overall, we’re expecting a wetter than normal winter,” said Wiener.    

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently announced that the world is in for a strong El Nino winter.   

And last week, the Climate Prediction Center announced a 30% chance of experiencing a “historically strong” event.