NOAA forecasts 6-11 names storms this hurricane season

WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) — Government forecasters say the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below normal, but they’re still warning coastal areas to be prepared.

According to forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released today, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of six to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20-percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan said. As a point of reference she pointed to 1992, when only seven named storms formed. That list included Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, that devastated South Florida.

““The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”

Included in today’s outlook is Tropical Storm Ana, but experts say its pre-season development is not an indicator of the overall season strength. They say Ana’s development was typical of preseason named storms, which often form along frontal boundaries in association with a trough in the jet stream. This method of formation differs from the named storms during the peak of the season, which originate mainly from low-pressure systems moving westward from Africa, and are independent of frontal boundaries and the jet stream.